Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Changing tone on MBIA

I have just sold my small holding of MBIA. I have been convinced - following a careful examination of documents issued for GICs - that this post is incorrect in several important ways. In particular the GICs at MBIA have a larger effect on parent company liquidity than GICs at Ambac.

I still have no opinion whatsoever on the solvency of the insurance company. [I intend to do that work - and if I form an opinion that is worth having then I will again take a position in the stock.] I now however take the view that if the insurance company is bad the parent company is likely bad.

And that the statement by Jay Brown about parent company liquidity in a recent letter to shareholders is actively misleading.

I have retained my holding in Ambac.

I make plenty of mistakes. This sort of mistake I enjoy. I made a profit.

3 comments:

domsam100 said...

_I now however take the view that if the insurance company is bad the parent company is likely bad._

Basis for such a big change of view?

Anonymous said...

bill ackman has pointed out that MBIA SIV has a negative networth, the shortfall will have to be met by shareholders money, including that $900m

Chris said...

John,

Any updates on MBIA? They seem to be gaining traction in court and it seems likely that the spinoff of National will be successful.

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